# Xue Bai: Improving short-term prediction of COVID-19 new cases in WV

**Presenter:**Xue Bai- Graduate Student Seminar Series

**Title:**Improving short-term prediction of COVID-19 new cases in WV

**Abstract:**Accurate prediction of the infectious disease is vital for optimizing control interventions during epidemics, and mathematical models are increasingly used to guide this decision-making. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number. In this talk, we will introduce estimation of this quantity and predict short-term COVID-19 new cases. We provide results of prediction in WV and improve prediction by modifying serial interval distribution and identifying imported cases.

**APR**

**15**